Election in Mali: On the Road to Peace or a Pathway to Crises?

President Dioncounda Traore, Mali's interim leader has met with members of two northern Tuareg separatist groups apparently for the first time in a build-up for peace to secure the elections scheduled to be held on Sunday. This move provoked anger among many in the country's south due to the rising ethnic tensions.

The aim of the election is to unify the nation after a March 2012 coup allowed Tuareg rebels and their al Qaeda-linked Islamist allies to seize the West African nation's desert north. France intervened earlier in the year, displacing the militants who have continued with brittle sporadic attacks.

The Tuareg rebels last month agreed to take their fighters off the streets in exchange for a promise of negotiations with the new government after the elections. This allowed the Malian army gained entrance into their controlled-territory. The rebels after the French-led intervention had simmered down captured some of the Islamists who outsmarted them in a 10-month long attacks.

Representatives of the MNLA and its ally, the High Council for the Unity of Azawad, was to meet with military officials to review progress in implementing the preliminary peace deal signed in neighbouring Burkina Faso. "We spoke of peace and reconciliation," Ibrahim Ag Mohamed Assale, head of external relations for the Tuareg MNLA rebels, said following the closed-door meeting at the presidential residence late on Sunday.

But many in the capital Bamako viewed the unannounced visit with the president, during which Traore broke the Muslim holy month of Ramadan's traditional daytime fast with the Tuareg leaders, as an affront. "Dioncounda may forgive them, but the people will not," said Bamako resident Youssouf Toure. This statement makes the peace after election in doubt especially if the candidate that emerges the winner is not accepted by an aggrieved party.

Light-skinned Tuaregs like the Sudanese-Arabs have been blamed for attacks on black Malians in the northern city of Kidal and for the abduction of four election workers and a deputy mayor in another northern town last week. Two of the Tuareg delegation are named in arrest warrants for alleged crimes committed during the occupation of the north. The Tuaregs had also vowed to expel all blacks from their vicinities before the peace deal; signalling a fear of another South-Sudan-Sudan-Darfur encounter.

Leopard and Its Spots: Harassment and Intimidation all Over Again in Zimbabwe

Amnesty International revealed Zimbabwean police raided the offices of civil society organisations and detained human rights workers in the run-up to elections scheduled to be held on July 31.

“The clampdown on the work of human rights defenders is a worrying indicator that government agencies remain actively hostile to civil society,” Noel Kututwa, Amnesty’s deputy programme director for Africa, said in an e-mailed statement. Even, the Carter Centre, created by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, said it was refused permission to monitor Zimbabwe's elections.

Amnesty in its report titled “Walk the Talk.” said 'civil society organisations carrying out election-related activities including voters' education, domestic election observation and those perceived to be critical of government policies have had their offices raided by police and equipment, including computers, seized whilst human rights defenders have been unlawfully detained.'

Rugare Gumbo, spokesman for Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, did not answer calls to his mobile phone before the report was released according to amnesty. Zimbabweans will vote in presidential and parliamentary elections on July 31, to end a power-sharing government led by President Robert Mugabe and his rival Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. The coalition was formed four years ago following a disputed election that was marred by voter irregularities and violence, according to international observers.

Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change, failed in a bid to postpone the election. The Southern African Development Community, which brokered the power-sharing agreement four years ago also pushed for the ballot to be delayed to allow more time for voters to be registered and ensure certain reforms are carried out for free and fair elections but all efforts proved abortive.

Amnesty said it is 'concerned that partisanship by some members of the country’s security services, who have openly expressed their preferred outcome in the next election, is directly undermining Zimbabwe’s ability to realise its obligation to respect and protect internationally guaranteed civil and political rights.' Robert Mugabe, 89 has dubbed the election to be a 'do or die affair' showing the level of desperation which of course must definitely come with harassment.

Zimbabwe should postpone its election; Southern African leaders urge Mugabe, discuss Madagascar

The summit of the 15-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) in the Mozambican capital, Maputo, came two days after Mugabe declared the election day, a date immediately rejected by Tsvangirai, his partner in coalition and main political rival.

The bloc leaders told Zimbabwe to ask its courts to extend a July 31 deadline to hold elections, amid high tension between President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai over the timing of the vote.

The argument of Mugabe was that he was following an order from the Constitutional Court to hold the election by the end of July which sounds more like an excuse of convenience. Tsvangirai said it was too soon to allow the reforms of the media and security forces required for a free and fair vote.

"The summit acknowledged the ruling of the constitutional court on the election date and it will be respected," Tomaz Salomao, Secretary General of SADC, said after the one-day meeting.

"What the summit recommended was, in recognising that there was a need for more time, that the government of Zimbabwe engage the constitutional court to ask for more time beyond the deadline of July 31." SADC leaders had earlier feared that hurrying the elections would increase the chances of a disputed result and violence.

In 2008 hundreds of Zimbabweans, mostly Tsvangirai's supporters, were beaten and killed, creating a flood of refugees into neighboring countries. Finance Minister Tendai Biti, who is also secretary general of Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change party, said SADC had "ordered a return to constitutionalism".

"We Zimbabweans want an election yesterday. However, it must be legitimate and credible," Biti said. The SADC summit, postponed by a week at Mugabe's request, had also been expected to discuss finance for the elections, expected to cost the cash-strapped country $132 million. The funding was not debated during the summit.

Madagascar was also discussed as wife of the former President, Marc Ravalomanana, ousted by Disc Jockey-turned-politician - Andriy Rajolina - said she will not step down. Rajolina rejoined the race when she decided to contest. Calls have also been made for Rajolina to step down by the African Union.

Foreign donors froze budget support and the Indian Ocean island was suspended from the African Union. Succumbing to regional pressure, both men agreed in January not to run in a presidential election in August.

Rajolina was assisted by the military to oust Ravalomanana in 2009. The wife of Ravalomanana said her husband's supporters want her and her mission is to end the food crisis in the country while her husband takes care of the business of the family.

The summit said there was need for international political and diplomatic pressure for "illegitimate presidential candidates to withdraw their candidatures for the sake of peace and stability in Madagascar". France also threatened not to recognise the election.

Beyond the Invasion: Western Designs for Mali

The United States is likely to eventually resume direct support for Mali's military, but only after full restoration of democracy through elections, the head of a visiting US Congress delegation said.

Senator Christopher Coons, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on Africa, led the first American congressional visit to the West African nation since France sent a military force there last month to halt the advance of al Qaeda-allied islamists.

The United States and United Kingdom have been providing airlift and refueling support for the French-led operation involving hundreds of French and African troops that has driven the Islamist rebels from a string of northern Malian towns in the last five weeks.

Washington has also been sharing intelligence to back the operation, but ruled out sending its own ground troops mainly because of Afghanistan and Iraq's experiences as well as its battered image in the Islamic world.

Coons, heading a four-member delegation from the US Senate and House of Representatives, said both French and African military commanders were happy with the support that Washington was providing, but he indicated they might welcome more.

Asked if increased US support for the military intervention could materialize, Coons said US law prohibited direct assistance to Mali's armed forces because of the military coup there last year that toppled the elected government.

"After there is a full restoration of democracy, I would think it is likely that we will renew our direct support for the Malian military," Coon said.

French and African forces are hunting the Islamist insurgents who have retreated to Mali's remote Northeast, and Malian interim President Dioncounda Traore has said presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in July.

Coons said al Qaeda's North African wing AQIM and its allies in Mali and elsewhere posed a "very real threat" to Africa, the United States and the wider world and he said the United States wanted to be part of the response to this security challenge.

Before last year's coup in Mali - led by a US-trained Malian army captain - the American military had been providing combat training to several Malian army battalions.

But this was quickly suspended after the coup, which plunged Mali into chaos and led to the occupation of its Saharan north by jihadists who hijacked a rebellion by Tuareg separatists.

Although the French-led offensive has driven the bulk of the Islamist forces northwards back up to the Algerian border, there are fears their fighters and sympathizers could strike back with reprisal attacks in Africa and elsewhere.

The election in Mali will be largely determined by Western whims and caprices. France, UK and America's energy interest will determine who wins or not and this will likely contribute to more insurgencies which has always characterised Western interference in nations. This could ruin France's international accolade though they do not care  for as long as the uranium keeps coming.

Israel's Election: Obama and Netanyahu on Palestine and Iran

The Israeli election is fast approaching and the centre-left Labour party led by Shelly Yachimovich is walking around the economy to garner strength during the election. Binyamin Netanyahu is favoured to win the election convincingly. Obama's mild face-off with Netanyahu is also boosting the morale of Netanyahu's campaign.

The whole affairs on security is a central campaign fact for the Likud Party; Iran's nuclear programme, Hamas defiant acts and the election of an Islamist regime in Egypt. All these are set to assist Netanyahu's Likud Party. Since no one party has ever won a real majority in Parliament, Netanyahu's choice becomes hard in coalition formation.

The Likud Party on January 22 will come out better and as the winner but the choice of Netanyahu remains tough in the race to gaining a convincing coalition to control the majority in Parliament. The extreme proportional representation forces Netanyahu to align with Yisrael Beitenu, a party who is more hawkish to the Palestinians than Netanyahu himself. 

Another party to watch out for in the new coalition is Habayit Hayehudi (The Jewish Home) led by the business and software mogul, Naftali Bennett. The coalition around Netanyahu brings the Palestinian question back into the campaign proper. Bennett is an hardline Jew who is really opposed to any home for the Palestinians.

While the criticism of Obama that Netanyahu's Israel is the main stumbling block to any peace with Palestine is being discussed within the party, it nonetheless has ironically bolstered Netanyahu's image and chances as the man who is for a real Jewish homeland since he supports settlements wholeheartedly.

Both Shelly Yachimovich, Netanyahu's closest rival and Binyamin had hoped to concentrate on domestic issues with the economy being the focus of the Labour Party and security being the point of campaign for the Likud Party but the 'Palestine Ghost' is once again proving to be one that has stubbornly refused death. After Palestine comes Iran and her nuclear programme.

Since Chuck Hagel, Obama's preferred Secretary of Defense is seen within Israel not as a war hawk, it makes a whole lot of sense to re-elect Netanyahu and the coalition who can meander and make the Islamic regime realise that Israel will always be ready to strike. Obama himself is indirectly sent a message that settlement and a 'single' homeland for all is the only solution not a two-state solution.