Thinking Egypt: Democracy, Military and the Muslim Brotherhood; The Ban, the Agendas and the Players

Discussing the horrific and saddening events in Egypt, beginning from the Rabaa Massacre would attract limited attention as the whole world is already aware and abreast of the developments. What is of note is the developing issue of banning the Muslim Brotherhood and the various monies fueling the crisis. In some quarters, Obama is perfectly supporting the Brotherhood against Egyptians who want a free society while some others believe it is a design because Morsi snubbed them; a way to secure Israel because Morsi is soft on Hamas. Apparently, the Egyptian military is 'gullible' compared to the Brotherhood. Most probably, Obama has to be in support of the Brotherhood on his own 'personal' part due to his analysis of the Tamarod 'Rebel' campaign movement.

John Kerry said the Egyptian military acted to preserve democracy and was lambasted by the Brotherhood that he would not accept a 'coup that was not a coup', to use Pepe Escobar's phrase, in Washington. Kerry's speech showed the official position of the White House but sometimes, a leader might somewhat deviate 'personally' from an official position guided by institutional traditions and laid down procedures. The White House is fighting to preserve the annual $1.3 billion aid to the military. On his part, Obama revealed that any future without the Muslim Brotherhood will lead to a divided society. That is just on point. Banning the Muslim Brotherhood would be a case of 'much ado about nothing'. In fact, were Egyptians not the ones who voted for it? Are Egyptians not the ones fighting now in support of Morsi?

If  the Muslim Brotherhood is banned, will its members be banished and exiled? Will its supporters not vote in elections? Will it be the case of Mubarak's era of fixed and pre-determined elections? If the Brotherhood is banned and free and fair elections are to be held, with its support base, its members will find a way back. It will remodel itself. Cutting of the head is not a panacea to a serious headache, maybe that is what President Obama had foreseen before 'mulling' support for the MB. According to the Tamarod group, Morsi was supporting Israel. How? Morsi by all standard was pro-Hamas, except if Hamas has turned a friend of Israel. Morsi balanced his acts, settled differences between Hamas and Israel to the applause and accolade of many but came back to commit a faux pas - promulgated a rule by decree. Although he later apologised but the people felt a Mubarak in democratic clothing was back. To err is human, to forgive is divine.

Tamarod utilised the dissatisfaction. While protesters were galvanised using the Tahrir Revolution of freedom and a 'secular' state, Tamarod group has its own agenda somehow. Mistakes are flying around in Egypt and it appears people are lost in support of one group against another without getting to know the latent intentions of the groups. Upon the ouster of Morsi, Israeli drones began work in Sinai in conjuction with Egyptian officials. Will Morsi have accepted such? Tamarod who sought his ouster and found Sisi as the 'devil' to accomplish the task definitely will not accept such but Sisi gave approval. Morsi's government is said to be against the tenets of democracy; women's rights and rights of minorities. Democracy alone does not specify these rights, Islam and Sharia'ah law do too but just as we have radical ones in every society, Egypt has too, hence the attacks on churches. Attacks on churches pre-dated Morsi but only became somehow worsen under him.

Morsi apologised and promised to make amends. His removal ought to be for calm, peace and dialogue. He can return once a real plan in a formidable third way out of military ideals already established by Mubarak and the 'fundamentalism' the MB is accused of trying to impose is worked out. Egyptians danced to the music of the power players; the music they know not its esoteric concoction. The only option to keep the MB off is to establish a Mubarak-style government because only such a style of governance can contain the resurgence of a body existing for over 30 years with well structured and articulated platform. Egyptians should then brace up for continued unrest. Too much of everything is bad. The most likely and plausible candidate for such a regime is General Abdel Fatah El Sisi, hence, the 'El Sisi' for President slogan is already gathering momentum. Egypt is back to pre-Morsi days; no doubt. Why then were elections held? Were Egyptians not the ones who voted?

El Sisi is soft on Israel though Israel is still in doubt of his actions. He does not appear like one who is ready to break the 1979 Camp David Accord with Israel or act detrimentally to the extent of severing Washington's cash; so, Tamarod still has much rebellious campaigns, unrest and civil disobediences to organise. The Gulf Monarchies are also bankrolling the military and El Sisi. Egypt is the heart of the Arab World truly. Egypt is now the testing ground of the divisive voices in the Arab World. Morsi is pro-Hamas, hence, must have a soft spot for Iran (Saudi Arabia's rival) though he had to go against al Assad to save himself from an impending danger.

Saudi Arabia is in full support of the military carnage going on in Egypt, so also is UAE and definitely Bahrain and Kuwait not excluding Hamas rival, the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). PLO is understandable, it is being paid by Washington like the Egyptian army. It just received $148 million to boost its budget. All of them have nothing to lose. Egyptians have all to lose. Iran sits and watch but rightly warned of a civil war in the offing earlier.

A simple suggestion would have been to continue dialogue, no matter how defiant the Muslim Brotherhood is. It has every right to be defiant. After all these years of being shortchanged and attacked under Mubarak, its LEGITIMATE mandate was again stolen and Sisi wants it to clap, fold its arms and smile? That would be the most debasing thought ever. Morsi can come back with serious negotiations for a real third way in Egypt where all parties will pledge to a free society that will guarantee women's rights and the rights of the minorities, most especially the Coptic Christians. They must be really, centrally and fully protected as in the days of Mubarak where attacks were very minimal. Sisi should shelve his pride and discuss with Morsi because he seems to be the only face that can calm the MB. Now, Mubarak is to  be released to show that Sisi really revenged. A soldier will always be for another soldier or so it looks now.

Muslims formed human shield to prevent the burning of the church

Egyptians should not allow the polarisation of their country. They are brothers; Muslims or Coptic Christians, Egypt is Egypt. Those pushing from the outside and from all sides will not suffer the consequences, Egyptians will. They are losing. The economy is battered, education is crippling. Egyptians should wake up. Egypt is Egypt and it must be saved.

The Model Continues: Tunisia frees former regime members from jail

The Arab Spring has known today began in Tunisia after the hero of the Spring, Mohammed Bouazizi's self-immolation. He was a cigarette seller who out of frustration of unemployment, despite being a graduate took to selling cigarette to keep body and soul together.

The Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire on 17 December 2010, in protest of the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation that he reported was inflicted on him by a municipal official and her aides.

The public's anger and violence intensified following Bouazizi's death, leading then-President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to step down on 14 January 2011, after 23 years in power. The success of the Tunisian protests inspired protests in several other Arab countries, plus several non-Arab countries.

Soon, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt fell. Yemeni President, Abdullah Saleh fell too and Maummar Gaddafi was killed. Syria is still battling its own and Bahrain is yet to have a bearing.

Egypt among others that followed Tunisia is still inconclusive. Egyptian President, Mohammed Morsi was recently ousted through popular uprising concluded by the military to save the country. Since then, the situation has deteriorated with the Muslim Brotherhood, the party backing President Morsi defiant on any negotiation and vow to continue mass protests.

Though the former Prime Minister of Tunisia, Hamadi Jebali resigned too but it has largely avoided the resultant effects noticeable elsewhere in Egypt, Yemen, Libya and in Syria, probably because it was the origin of the spring and a model others must watch out for.

The authorities on Thursday released from jail,  two former figures from the toppled regime who were arrested following the 2011 uprising for abuse of power, according to the justice ministry. Mohammed Ghariani, ex secretary-general of the Rally for Constitutional Democracy party and former interior minister of now ousted dictator Zine El Adidine Addallah Kallel were freed by a Tunisian Appeals Court.

In 2012 a military court sentenced Kallel to two years in jail for the arrest and torture of army officers who were accused in 1991 of trying to topple Ben Ali, while Ghariani was arrested in April 2011 for abuse of power and embezzlement.

Tunisia is quietly charting its future, at least in a peaceful fashion though fighting al Qaeda-linked militants in the mountainous region. It is recording successes which if compared to others who took the spring can be regarded as giant strides towards a dynamic future if all things remain the same and go on with the present panache.

Middle East Dilemma: Washington calls on France and Britain to arm Rebels; Iran to send troops to Assad

The Middle East is edging closer to a more precarious situation with the recent turn of events. The announcement by Washington to arm Syrian rebels and the recent meeting of Sunnis in Cairo have all added fuel to the Syrian crisis. The Sunnis vow to end the regime of Bashar al Assad.

The prompt result of this was the severing of diplomatic and political ties by the Egyptian President, Mohammed Morsi, with President Assad. President Morsi said there is 'no space or place for Hezbollah is Syria'. He made it resoundingly clear that Hezbollah must leave Syria. Morsi went further to demand a no-fly zone be imposed over Syria.

All this events happening barely 24 hours before the Iranian election (that of Washington) and within 24 hours after the election (that of President Morsi). Within 24 hours after Morsi's declaration, reports came out from Iran that the Islamic Republic will be sending 4,000 soldiers to Syria to help Assad.

Russia too is to go ahead in supplying his S-300 missile batteries to Assad. The US also calls on France and Britain to supply weapons to Syrian rebels thus creating a cold-war-like conflict in Syria. Syria definitely represents one of the last bastions of Cold War alongside North Korea and Cuba.

Hezbollah's involvement and its seemingly rising power after the Qusayr victory seems to have 'alarmed' Israel and its powerful lobby group in Washington. Hassan Nasrallah has vowed that Hezbollah will not leave Syria because it cannot afford it falling into the hands of Israel, the US and al Qaeda.

Washington upon the imposition of a Shi'ite regime in Iraq saw it bolstered Iran, hence, roughly calculates to counter-balance the trend by supporting rebels (Sunni and al Qaeda-linked rebels in Syria) while overlooking the brutality in Bahrain for fear of losing it to another Shi'ite group. Saudi, Bahrain and 'Syria' together will be a great buffer zone to cage Iran for the benefits of oil and Israel.

In now looks as if the main targets of the US and Israel are now becoming full participants; Iran and Hezbollah. This will definitely be a bad, catastrophic and colossal precedent for the Middle East as Washington and Israel have 'effectively' used the Sunni-Shi'ite divide well to their advantage. Arabs are the epitome of their own failure, instability and regional chaos with so-called Sunni-Shi'ite divide.

Their wall has cracked beyond repair to the advantage of Israel and Washington. Palestine is on its own once Iran is taken off the radar. Other Arab nations will only make much noise and Washington cum Tel Aviv can easily pocket them. Iran has been a kind of 'rational' player Israel finds hard to 'effectively' get off the table and the Syrian war looks pretty good for the job to be done. In all these calculations, it is the people that will get to suffer.