Al Qaeda is Expanding and France is its most Significant Foe

Al-Qaeda’s resilience, ideological strength and expansion in the midst of escalating sectarian struggle has increased the threat it poses - and it will take decades to win the ideological struggle against it, according to a new report.

“There has been a net expansion in the number and geographic scope of al-Qaeda affiliates and allies over the past decade, indicating that al-Qaeda and its brand are far from defeated,” said author of the study and RAND corporation analyst, Seth Jones.

Jones noted that what was once a highly organized group with a strong base in Afghanistan has now reaped affiliates, allied groups, and inspired networks of groups harboring a “hatred of the West” and its allied regimes across the Middle  East.

Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the suspected ringleader of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, was given as an example of an “inspired” individual who was not a member of al-Qaeda.

The core group itself has seen a general ascendance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), for which a number of possible reasons were given. Four separate subsectors or groups of the militant block were identified: Central al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda allies, al-Qaeda affiliates, and al-Qaeda ideological sympathizers.

The Arab uprisings, which have “weakened regimes” in the region, were given as a primary cause for al-Qaeda’s spread. According to the report, the uprisings created an “opportunity” for al-Qaeda affiliates and allies to consolidate a footing in the regions.

Increasing sectarian struggles in the same areas means that resources available to Sunni Islamic militant groups have also grown, allowing weaponry to spread and be more accessible to militants. Meanwhile, the movement has become “more diffuse and decentralized” as a result of the expansion, Jones stated in a testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee last week.

Al-Qaeda members “largely run their operations autonomously, though they still communicate with core leadership in Pakistan and may seek strategic advice.”

Because of this diffusion and lack of solid organizational structure to the militant movement, the study found that despite an increasing availability of weapons, the group as a unit is becoming less of a threat to the US. However, ideologically, it is still growing stronger.

“The growth in social media and the terrorist use of chat rooms, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and other sites has facilitated radicalization inside the United States,” the study says, outlining how the increased dissemination of ‘propaganda’ information and instructions on how to create bombs has played a key role.

Despite being less of a threat to the US on its home territory, affiliates and allies of the group continue to threaten US and foreign outposts overseas, such as those in Tunisia in 2012.

“Jabhat al-Nusrah’s access to foreign fighters, external network in Europe and other areas, and bomb-making expertise suggest that it may already have the capability to plan and support attacks against the West,” wrote Jones, adding that there seems to be a “growing contingent of foreign fighters – perhaps several thousand – traveling to Syria to fight in the war.”

Most pressing Al-Qaeda threats

Although posing a certain ideological threat to the US, it materialized that the most pressing concerns of the group were considerably more localized than any international ‘end-game,’ the report claimed.

“Most Al-Qaeda leaders are not interested in establishing a global caliphate and do not seek to overthrow regimes in much of the world,” Jones wrote, adding that “they tend to have rather more parochial goals,” focusing predominantly on countries or regions rather than a global jihad.

The study found that their primary international target was, surprisingly, France. “France, rather than the United States, is the most significant foreign enemy,” the report stated.

For al-Qaeda’s current leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, both a “near enemy” and a “far enemy” are identifiable.  For him, “the primary goal is broader: to overthrow regimes in key Muslim countries,” while attacking far-off countries is seen as a means to an end rather than an end in its own right.

However, the document goes on to advise the US on how to counter any direct threats. It encourages the country to implement a “light footprint strategy that focuses on covert intelligence, law enforcement, and Special Operations Forces,” adding that the US should withdraw Afghan forces and instead focus on conducting low-intensity operations in the area as they do in Colombia.

A double-pronged approach would be most effective, combining the ground strategy with an undermining of al-Qaeda’s ideology, the report said, adding that today the US plays no lead role in attempting to do so.

“The struggle against the al-Qaeda movement will be long – measured in decades, not months or years. Much like the Cold War, it is also predominantly an ideological struggle,” Jones concluded.

Russia Today

The Model Continues: Tunisia frees former regime members from jail

The Arab Spring has known today began in Tunisia after the hero of the Spring, Mohammed Bouazizi's self-immolation. He was a cigarette seller who out of frustration of unemployment, despite being a graduate took to selling cigarette to keep body and soul together.

The Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire on 17 December 2010, in protest of the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation that he reported was inflicted on him by a municipal official and her aides.

The public's anger and violence intensified following Bouazizi's death, leading then-President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to step down on 14 January 2011, after 23 years in power. The success of the Tunisian protests inspired protests in several other Arab countries, plus several non-Arab countries.

Soon, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt fell. Yemeni President, Abdullah Saleh fell too and Maummar Gaddafi was killed. Syria is still battling its own and Bahrain is yet to have a bearing.

Egypt among others that followed Tunisia is still inconclusive. Egyptian President, Mohammed Morsi was recently ousted through popular uprising concluded by the military to save the country. Since then, the situation has deteriorated with the Muslim Brotherhood, the party backing President Morsi defiant on any negotiation and vow to continue mass protests.

Though the former Prime Minister of Tunisia, Hamadi Jebali resigned too but it has largely avoided the resultant effects noticeable elsewhere in Egypt, Yemen, Libya and in Syria, probably because it was the origin of the spring and a model others must watch out for.

The authorities on Thursday released from jail,  two former figures from the toppled regime who were arrested following the 2011 uprising for abuse of power, according to the justice ministry. Mohammed Ghariani, ex secretary-general of the Rally for Constitutional Democracy party and former interior minister of now ousted dictator Zine El Adidine Addallah Kallel were freed by a Tunisian Appeals Court.

In 2012 a military court sentenced Kallel to two years in jail for the arrest and torture of army officers who were accused in 1991 of trying to topple Ben Ali, while Ghariani was arrested in April 2011 for abuse of power and embezzlement.

Tunisia is quietly charting its future, at least in a peaceful fashion though fighting al Qaeda-linked militants in the mountainous region. It is recording successes which if compared to others who took the spring can be regarded as giant strides towards a dynamic future if all things remain the same and go on with the present panache.

French Gift to Mali Islamists

­
The revelation by the former US ambassador shows that most of the wars fought by Western Nations are wars they covertly or overtly financed. The heavy weapons used by Islamists in Mali came from NATO's supply against Gaddafi.

The ambassador reveals:

In recent years France and other European countries have channeled millions of dollars in ransom payments to Al Qaeda-linked militants, according to a former US ambassador to Mali. The militants are thought to be from the same groups now fighting French troops in the troubled North African state.

In an interview aired on a French channel on Friday, Vicki Huddleston, who served as ambassador from 2002-2005, said that France had paid $17 million to free French hostages seized from a uranium mine in its former colony Niger in 2010.

She added that at least $89 million could have been paid out through intermediaries by European countries between 2004 -2011. North Africa's AQIM military organization has been active in northern Mali since 2003. The militants have kidnapped dozens of hostages for ransom over the last 10 years.

The incoming invasion of Africa is really on course.

United States to Ease Sanctions on Sudan

The top US diplomat in Sudan revealed today that Washington will soon change sanctions regulations that will allow educational institutional in both countries to deal directly with one another.

Washington imposed economic and trade sanctions on Sudan in 1997 because of the civil wars in the country, accusing it of supporting terrorism. In 2007, it strengthened the embargo citing abuses in Darfur which it labeled as genocide.

In 2010 the US announced it was easing sanctions on agriculture equipment and services which allowed half a dozen companies to get export licenses.

Khartoum has lobbied Washington intensively to lift sanctions but little progress has been made on this front.

In an interview with the independent al-Sahafa newspaper the American charge d'affaires Joseph D. Stafford said that the Obama administration is prepared to hold a comprehensive, frank and transparent dialogue with Khartoum on all issues that prevent normalization of bilateral ties.

Stafford noted that security cooperation between the two sides which strengthened more than a decade ago is continuing describing it as "good".

He denied that the US is biased in favour of any party in Sudan and strongly dismissed accusations by officials in Khartoum that Washington is behind the "New Dawn" charter signed by opposition and rebel groups in Kampala last month.

Stafford said that Washington informed Sudanese rebels that they oppose any attempt to overthrow the regime by force and urged them to seek dialogue with Khartoum.

"We are only biased towards peace in Sudan," the US official said.

He said that his country stopped granting visas to Sudanese and reduced its staff since last September following demonstrations that broke out in Khartoum at the US embassy against a film that insulted the Prophet Mohammad.

Stafford called this a temporary measure that he hopes will soon be reversed.

Africa: Libyan Militants Supported Algerian Islamists

The interconnectedness among various militants and Islamist groups in Africa is growing nauseously. The militants who seized an Algerian gas plant before they were killed in a bloodbath received logistical aid from Islamists in Libya, a well-informed source told AFP on Tuesday

International media groups, including AFP, were able to get from Islamist circles based in Eastern Libya telephone numbers of the kidnappers as they last Wednesday overran the In Amenas gas plant in the deep Algerian desert.

37 foreigners were killed in the 4-day siege of the remote desert gas plant, some of them executed with a bullet to the head, Algerian premier Abdelmalek Sellal said on Monday. He said that a total of 29 militants were also killed and three captured in the siege, which got concluded on Saturday when Algerian special forces stormed the gas complex.

Algeria said its special forces managed to free 685 Algerian and 107 foreign hostages, most of them on Thursday, during their first rescue operation. During the deadly standoff, several media outlets had talked of a “Libyan connection” to the siege.

Algerian website TSA cited a security source saying the kidnappers had entered Algeria from Libya in official Libyan vehicles, while other outlets argued that the weapons the kidnappers used came from Libya.

When questioned by AFP, Libyan officials simply reiterated the words of their prime minister, Ali Zeidan, who denied that the kidnappers entered Algeria from Libya, saying the Libyan territory was not being used for launching operations that threaten security of neighbouring countries.

Algerian premier Sellal on Monday that the militants had crossed from Northern Mali. The Libyan source said that Libyan Islamists had no organisational link with the group, “Signatories in Blood” which led the four-day siege of the gas complex.

The group is led by one-eyed Mokhtar Belmokhtar, one of the founders of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM ). Belmokhtar left Al-Qaeda in October to create his own group. Jaber al-Abidi, an analyst, has no doubt Libyans were involved.

“It is clear that there is a link between Libyan extremist groups and those who led the In Amenas operation,” said Jaber al-Obeidi, an analyst and political activist. “Libyan extremists are present in northern Mali and helped carry weapons from Libya after the fall of the regime” of Gaddafi, he added.

The “Signatories in Blood” group had said that its attack on the gas complex was in retaliation for French intervention in northern Mali. Algeria’s Sellal dismissed this, saying the assault had been planned for nearly two months, long before France intervened in northern Mali.

Since the fall of Gaddafi’s regime in October 2011, Libyan Islamists have gained influence and inherited a large military arsenal from the conflict that ousted and killed him. Their ability to strike was illustrated by the murderous assault launched September 11 on the US consulate in Libya’s eastern city of Benghazi that killed the American ambassador Chris Stevens and three other Americans coupled with attacks on security men.

According to the Libyan source, the Islamists who attacked the gas facility entered Mali “transiting through Niger and Libya from the Salvador triangle,” a barren stretch of desert that borders Libya, Algeria and Niger. Libya has long struggled to monitor its 4,000-kilometre (2,500-mile) land border. Boko Haram is also said to be strengthened by the various Islamist groups around Nigeria, in the Sahel and Sahara.