Al Qaeda is Expanding and France is its most Significant Foe

Al-Qaeda’s resilience, ideological strength and expansion in the midst of escalating sectarian struggle has increased the threat it poses - and it will take decades to win the ideological struggle against it, according to a new report.

“There has been a net expansion in the number and geographic scope of al-Qaeda affiliates and allies over the past decade, indicating that al-Qaeda and its brand are far from defeated,” said author of the study and RAND corporation analyst, Seth Jones.

Jones noted that what was once a highly organized group with a strong base in Afghanistan has now reaped affiliates, allied groups, and inspired networks of groups harboring a “hatred of the West” and its allied regimes across the Middle  East.

Tamerlan Tsarnaev, the suspected ringleader of the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings, was given as an example of an “inspired” individual who was not a member of al-Qaeda.

The core group itself has seen a general ascendance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), for which a number of possible reasons were given. Four separate subsectors or groups of the militant block were identified: Central al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda allies, al-Qaeda affiliates, and al-Qaeda ideological sympathizers.

The Arab uprisings, which have “weakened regimes” in the region, were given as a primary cause for al-Qaeda’s spread. According to the report, the uprisings created an “opportunity” for al-Qaeda affiliates and allies to consolidate a footing in the regions.

Increasing sectarian struggles in the same areas means that resources available to Sunni Islamic militant groups have also grown, allowing weaponry to spread and be more accessible to militants. Meanwhile, the movement has become “more diffuse and decentralized” as a result of the expansion, Jones stated in a testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Committee last week.

Al-Qaeda members “largely run their operations autonomously, though they still communicate with core leadership in Pakistan and may seek strategic advice.”

Because of this diffusion and lack of solid organizational structure to the militant movement, the study found that despite an increasing availability of weapons, the group as a unit is becoming less of a threat to the US. However, ideologically, it is still growing stronger.

“The growth in social media and the terrorist use of chat rooms, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and other sites has facilitated radicalization inside the United States,” the study says, outlining how the increased dissemination of ‘propaganda’ information and instructions on how to create bombs has played a key role.

Despite being less of a threat to the US on its home territory, affiliates and allies of the group continue to threaten US and foreign outposts overseas, such as those in Tunisia in 2012.

“Jabhat al-Nusrah’s access to foreign fighters, external network in Europe and other areas, and bomb-making expertise suggest that it may already have the capability to plan and support attacks against the West,” wrote Jones, adding that there seems to be a “growing contingent of foreign fighters – perhaps several thousand – traveling to Syria to fight in the war.”

Most pressing Al-Qaeda threats

Although posing a certain ideological threat to the US, it materialized that the most pressing concerns of the group were considerably more localized than any international ‘end-game,’ the report claimed.

“Most Al-Qaeda leaders are not interested in establishing a global caliphate and do not seek to overthrow regimes in much of the world,” Jones wrote, adding that “they tend to have rather more parochial goals,” focusing predominantly on countries or regions rather than a global jihad.

The study found that their primary international target was, surprisingly, France. “France, rather than the United States, is the most significant foreign enemy,” the report stated.

For al-Qaeda’s current leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, both a “near enemy” and a “far enemy” are identifiable.  For him, “the primary goal is broader: to overthrow regimes in key Muslim countries,” while attacking far-off countries is seen as a means to an end rather than an end in its own right.

However, the document goes on to advise the US on how to counter any direct threats. It encourages the country to implement a “light footprint strategy that focuses on covert intelligence, law enforcement, and Special Operations Forces,” adding that the US should withdraw Afghan forces and instead focus on conducting low-intensity operations in the area as they do in Colombia.

A double-pronged approach would be most effective, combining the ground strategy with an undermining of al-Qaeda’s ideology, the report said, adding that today the US plays no lead role in attempting to do so.

“The struggle against the al-Qaeda movement will be long – measured in decades, not months or years. Much like the Cold War, it is also predominantly an ideological struggle,” Jones concluded.

Russia Today

The Model Continues: Tunisia frees former regime members from jail

The Arab Spring has known today began in Tunisia after the hero of the Spring, Mohammed Bouazizi's self-immolation. He was a cigarette seller who out of frustration of unemployment, despite being a graduate took to selling cigarette to keep body and soul together.

The Tunisian street vendor set himself on fire on 17 December 2010, in protest of the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation that he reported was inflicted on him by a municipal official and her aides.

The public's anger and violence intensified following Bouazizi's death, leading then-President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to step down on 14 January 2011, after 23 years in power. The success of the Tunisian protests inspired protests in several other Arab countries, plus several non-Arab countries.

Soon, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt fell. Yemeni President, Abdullah Saleh fell too and Maummar Gaddafi was killed. Syria is still battling its own and Bahrain is yet to have a bearing.

Egypt among others that followed Tunisia is still inconclusive. Egyptian President, Mohammed Morsi was recently ousted through popular uprising concluded by the military to save the country. Since then, the situation has deteriorated with the Muslim Brotherhood, the party backing President Morsi defiant on any negotiation and vow to continue mass protests.

Though the former Prime Minister of Tunisia, Hamadi Jebali resigned too but it has largely avoided the resultant effects noticeable elsewhere in Egypt, Yemen, Libya and in Syria, probably because it was the origin of the spring and a model others must watch out for.

The authorities on Thursday released from jail,  two former figures from the toppled regime who were arrested following the 2011 uprising for abuse of power, according to the justice ministry. Mohammed Ghariani, ex secretary-general of the Rally for Constitutional Democracy party and former interior minister of now ousted dictator Zine El Adidine Addallah Kallel were freed by a Tunisian Appeals Court.

In 2012 a military court sentenced Kallel to two years in jail for the arrest and torture of army officers who were accused in 1991 of trying to topple Ben Ali, while Ghariani was arrested in April 2011 for abuse of power and embezzlement.

Tunisia is quietly charting its future, at least in a peaceful fashion though fighting al Qaeda-linked militants in the mountainous region. It is recording successes which if compared to others who took the spring can be regarded as giant strides towards a dynamic future if all things remain the same and go on with the present panache.

Pope Benedict XVI's Resignation and African Leaders

Pope Benedict XVI became the first Pope in 600 years to willingly resign from office. The Papal Nuncio has no rival forcing him to quit. There is neither a protest or a mass uprising in the Catholic fold demanding the great hero of Christiandom steps down. Upon the realisation that his health can no longer serve as the foundation of his ordained mission, the Pope, to the amazement and shock of the world announced he will exit the prestigious seat in the Vatican by February 28, 2013.

The Pope is within the age bracket of Robert Mugabe (80) yet Mugabe still seek rounds of years in Zimbabwe. Lacking in ideas and foresight, Mugabe has led flowering and blossoming Zimbabwe into the abyss. So many African leaders exist today who continue to rule and hold on to power despite failing health and lack of sagacity. Paul Biya of Cameroon has no date of exit. Yahya Jammeh has turned Gambia into a personal property.

Eyadema Jnr in Togo does not look as if he is ready at all to consider death not to talk of leaving the Presidential Palace. Idris Deby rules on in Chad despite the growing opposition to his rule. How about Yoweri Museveni of Uganda? He went as far as telling BBC that he is too experienced to leave and exit office. If he will not leave by himself, death will. 

Many African leaders die in office due to stupidity. Umar Bongo of Gabon spent 47 years in office before death bade him farewell. Nigeria's erstwhile President's case is the most pathetic. Despite having good intentions and leading truly with a patriotic mind, Umar Musa Yar'Adua died in office due to pressure within his party or better still pressure from the national 'godfather' Olusegun Obasanjo not to leave the stage so that he can achieve his nefarious whims and caprices.

He was sick like the Pope but never considered resignation as an option. Maummar Gaddafi despite being a leader with good track records in the betterment of the lives of Libyans and advancement of his country was killed due to the sit-tight syndrome of African leaders. They are many. Just too many. Is it Hosni Mubarak of Egypt or Ben-Ali of Tunisia? Too numerous.

One singular error people especially foreigners and their apologists in Africa make is to say the sit-tight syndrome is Africa's culture. During the era of the monarchs in traditional African societies, sick men never ruled. When a leader was sick, he must step down. If a society with a calamitous economy like that of Zimbabwe existed in traditional African societies, the people would have risen against such a leader and in Yorubaland, he would be made to open the 'calabash' as a sign of rejection.

African leaders are nothing but bunch of destroyers. They believe resignation is an act of cowardice. Though I do not subscribe to this because I know resignation is never in their minds not to talk of it as an act of cowardice. All they harbour in their corrupt souls is GREED. The irony is that they have successfully built a team of successors among the youths who cannot wait to continue the plundering. The have trained successors. The Pope's announcement that he will never influence the choice of his successor is not an act African leaders can buy or subscribe to.

The Coming Invasion of Africa

The Real Invasion of Africa Is Not News, and a License To Lie Is Hollywood’s Gift

by John Pilger, February 01, 2013

A full-scale invasion of Africa is under way. The United States is deploying troops in 35 African countries, beginning with Libya, Sudan, Algeria and Niger. Reported by Associated Press on Christmas Day, this was missing from most Anglo-American media.

The invasion has almost nothing to do with "Islamism", and almost everything to do with the acquisition of resources, notably minerals, and an accelerating rivalry with China. Unlike China, the

US and its allies are prepared to use a degree of violence demonstrated in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen and Palestine. As in the cold war, a division of labour requires that western journalism and popular culture provide the cover of a holy war against a "menacing arc" of Islamic extremism, no different from the bogus "red menace" of a worldwide communist conspiracy.

Reminiscent of the Scramble for Africa in the late 19^th century, the US African Command (Africom) has built a network of supplicants among collaborative African regimes eager for American bribes and armaments. Last year, Africom staged Operation African Endeavor, with the armed forces of 34
African nations taking part, commanded by the US military.

Africom’s "soldier to soldier" doctrine embeds US officers at every level of command from general to warrant officer. Only pith helmets are missing.

It is as if Africa’s proud history of liberation, from Patrice Lumumba to Nelson Mandela, is consigned to oblivion by a new master’s black colonial elite whose "historic mission", warned Frantz Fanon half a century ago, is the promotion of "a capitalism rampant though camouflaged".

A striking example is the eastern Congo, a treasure trove of strategic minerals, controlled by an atrocious rebel group known as the M23 , which in turn is run by Uganda and Rwanda, the proxies of Washington.

Long planned as a "mission" for NATO, not to mention the ever-zealous French, whose colonial lost causes remain on permanent standby, the war on Africa became urgent in 2011 when the Arab world appeared to be liberating itself from the Mubaraks and other clients of Washington and Europe. The hysteria this caused in imperial capitals cannot be exaggerated.

NATO bombers were dispatched not to Tunis or Cairo but Libya, where Muammar Gaddafi ruled over Africa’s largest oil reserves. With the Libyan city of Sirte reduced to rubble, the British SAS directed the "rebel" militias in what has since been exposed as a racist bloodbath.

The indigenous people of the Sahara, the Tuareg, whose Berber fighters Gaddafi had protected, fled home across Algeria to Mali, where the Tuareg have been claiming a separate state since the 1960s.

As the ever watchful Patrick Cockburn points out, it is this local dispute, not al-Qaida, that the West fears most in northwest Africa …."poor though the Tuareg may be, they are often living on top of great reserves of oil, gas, uranium and other valuable minerals".

Almost certainly the consequence of a French/US attack on Mali on 13 January, a siege at a gas complex in Algeria ended bloodily, inspiring a 9/11 moment in David Cameron. The former Carlton TV PR man raged about a "global threat" requiring "decades" of western violence. He meant implantation of the west’s business plan for Africa, together with the rape of multi-ethnic Syria and the conquest of independent Iran.

Cameron has now ordered British troops to Mali, and sent an RAF drone, while his verbose military chief, General Sir David Richards, has addressed "a very clear message to jihadists worldwide: don’t dangle and tangle with us. We will deal with it robustly" – exactly what jihadists want to hear. The trail of blood of British army terror victims, all Muslims, their "systemic" torture cases currently heading to court, add necessary irony to the general’s words.

 I once experienced Sir David’s "robust" ways when I asked him if he had read the courageous Afghan feminist Malalai Joya’s description of the barbaric behaviour of westerners and their clients in her country. "You are an apologist for the Taliban" was his reply. (He later apologised).

These bleak comedians are straight out of Evelyn Waugh and allow us to feel the bracing breeze of history and hypocrisy. The "Islamic terrorism" that is their excuse for the enduring theft of Africa’s riches was all but invented by them.

There is no longer any excuse to swallow the BBC/CNN line and not know the truth. Read Mark Curtis’s Secret Affairs: Britain’s Collusion with Radical Islam (Serpent’s Tail) or John Cooley’s Unholy Wars: Afghanistan, America and International Terrorism (Pluto Press) or The Grand Chessboard by Zbigniew Brzezinski (HarperCollins) who was midwife to the birth of modern fundamentalist terror.

 In effect, the mujahedin of al-Qaida and the Taliban were created by the CIA, its Pakistani equivalent, the Inter-Services Intelligence, and Britain’s MI6.

Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter’s National Security Adviser, describes a secret presidential directive in 1979 that began what became the current "war on terror". For 17 years, the US deliberately cultivated, bank-rolled, armed and brainwashed jihadi extremists that "steeped a generation in violence". Code-named Operation Cyclone, this was the "great game" to bring down the Soviet Union but brought down the Twin Towers.

Since then, the news that intelligent, educated people both dispense and ingest has become a kind of Disney journalism, fortified, as ever, by Hollywood’s licence to lie, and lie.

There is the coming Dreamworks movie on WikiLeaks, a fabrication inspired by a book of perfidious title-tattle by two enriched Guardian journalists; and there is Zero Dark Thirty, which promotes torture and murder, directed by the Oscar-winning Kathryn Bigelow, the Leni Riefenstahl of our time, promoting her master’s voice as did the Fuhrer’s pet film-maker. Such is the one-way mirror through which we barely glimpse what power does in our name.

Africa's Economy: High Prospects of Boom with Caused Failures

Africa today:

$1.6 trillion – Africa’s collective GDP in 2008, roughly that of Brazil or Russia
$860 billion – Africa’s combined consumer spending in 2008
$316 million – the amount of new mobile subscribers signed up in Africa since the year 2000
60 percent –  Africa’s share of the world’s total amount of uncultivated land
52 the number of African cities with more than 1 million people living urbanized
20 the number of African companies with revenues in excess of $3 billion

Africa tomorrow:

$2.6 trillion – Africa’s collective GDP in 2020
$1.4 trillion – Africa’s consumer spending in 2020
1.1 billion the number of Africans of working age in 2040
128 million the number of African households with discretionary income in 2020
50 percent –  the portion of Africans living in cities by 2030

Africa is a destination for cheap and less costly labour which makes the prospects of booming economic activities high. The coming of more Foreign Direct Investments will be gingered by this. It remains a hot spot for investors.

It is worthy of note that Africa’s acceleration resulted from more than just a resource boom. Their have been various attempts by governments to terminate political unrest, implement enhanced macroeconomic policies creating better business climates but all these are again truncated with leadership greed.

Africa is a continent of commodities. Natural resources accounted for 24 percent of GDP from 2000 to 2008. The rest came stemmed from other sectors i.e. retail, wholesale, transportation, telecommunications and manufacturing. This is also a positive sign of economic growth since the 80’s.

Additional efforts to privatise state-owned enterprises, reducing trade barriers, cutting corporate taxes where applicable and improved regulatory systems, have stimulated economic blood flow. The headache is this angle is the lack of adequate regulations to properly guide the workings of the private sectors, hence, abuse and 'slavery' exist in most industries especially that of the Chinese, Indians and other Asian countries.

In the year 2000 foreign direct investment in Africa stood at $9 billion. Today FDI stands at in excess of $100 billion just from China alone.

Although Africa has all these resources its future is critically dependent on other developments and measures that need to be resuscitated to peak performance in order to competitively compete holistically.

Such sectors are education from kindergarten levels. Infrastructure for education needs dramatic attention, inclusive of modern technology that can be accessed on the Chinese market. Africa as at now has not astutely taken on the sector which is a critical pivot for development.

Upgrading and improving the syllabus for teacher education programmes. Special attention must be given to the food security in rural areas where children can also access upgraded medical facilities impacting on the high mortality rates.

No greater impact will occur than by 2020 where the forecast for urbanisation will be devastating for sustainable growth. Today 40 percent of Africa’s population live in her cities. By 2020 it is projected that more than half of African households will have discretionary spending power, straining urbanisation and impacting on the pollution levels for which Africa will also have to comply.

Impacting on green solutions is the lack of refuse and waste recycling throughout Africa. The one in Nigeria in Lagos is at best a concept in its nurturing state. These industries are neglected across the continent. Metals, plastics and alternative manufacturing from recycled metals and plastics are lagging industries throughout African that enjoy high employment.

The four most advanced economies in Africa – Egypt, Morocco, South Africa and Tunisia currently enjoy advanced manufacturing and services industries. These countries are also classified as diverse economies and will face some challenges related higher labour costs and volatility in the export markets.

Africa has been exercising her economic policies and stimulating the heart of sovereign industries in order to achieve continental growth. So far we have every right to believe that we are on course for recovery and maybe a renaissance in the making.

Now more than ever, inter-continental remedies are needed to achieve stability, improve human rights, promote economic democracy outside of political ambitions and re-establish Africa as a continent proud of her heritage. To get to that desired destination, African leaders need to end avarice and imbibe dynamic patriotism wholly.

Statistics Courtesy: Ventures Africa.