Peace Coming Home: Malian Army Enters Kidal

Just as the United Nations peacekeeping force took over security affairs with the 6000-strong Ecowas force in Mali, it wasn't long enough before the malian military entered the northern city of Kidal on Friday afternoon, returning for the first time since they were chased out 16 months ago by a Tuareg separatist group, and later by an army of al-Qaeda-linked fighters.

"It was around 17:00 that the soldiers entered Kidal and penetrated Camp 1 inside the city. The Malian military was accompanied by the French military, just as they were when our soldiers entered Timbuktu and Gao," said Lt Col Souleymane Maiga, the director of information and public relations for the Malian military.

Kidal, like the rest of northern Mali, fell to a mixture of rebel groups in March of 2012 following a coup that toppled the democratic leader. It remained in rebel hands during the past six months, even after French forces launched a military intervention to free northern Mali from the fighters, succeeding in liberating all of the other major towns. Tuareg rebels re-entered Kidal in February and March of this year, erecting roadblocks, levying taxes and creating a de facto Tuareg state.

The Tuareg groups controlling Kidal signed an agreement last month, seen as the road-map for election to be held and paved the way for the return of Mali's military. The entry of the military removes one of the major obstacles to an upcoming presidential election, scheduled to take place in just three weeks; presumably by July 28.

"The Malian army arrived in Kidal," said Deputy Mayor Abda Ag Kazina. "There were two demonstrations - one was to support the army. The other was to prevent the army from returning. There were shots fired in the air and the protesters dispersed," he said.

Mali's north and south could easily be two different countries - inhabited by radically different ethnic groups. Kidal is home predominantly to Tuareg and Arab ethnic groups, both lighter skinned than the sub-Saharan ethnic groups common in the south, where the capital and the seat of power is located. The Tuaregs had recently threatened to sack all the blacks which brought possible fear of a Sudan-South-Sudan-Darfur triad.

West African Leaders Call for the Presence of Multinational Naval Force for Maritime Security

West African leaders seem to be waking up from slumber but as usual, almost powerless to walk out of bed alone without external supports. The leaders held maritime security summit in Cameroon due to the growing cases of piracy in the resource-rich Gulf of Guinea.

Member states of Economic Community of West African States and Economic Community of East African States took part in the summit held in Yaounde. The participating states signed a Memorandum of Agreement on joint prevention and repression of illegal activities in the gulf which will establish a concrete basis for the two regional blocs to share intelligence, conduct joint patrols and jointly repress piracy in their maritime domain.

The Memorandum of Agreement among ECOWAS, ECCAS and the Gulf of Guinea Commission on Maritime Safety and Security in West and Central Africa is the policy statements of the heads of state and government on maritime safety and security; as well as a Code of Conduct on the fight against piracy, armed robbery and illegal maritime activities.

President Alassane Ouattara of Cote D'Ivoire stated that a multinational naval force is needed to curb and stem the tide of the rising activities of pirates in the Gulf of Guinea which have overtaken that of the coast of Somalia. In 2012, 960 maritime personnels were abducted in the Gulf of Guinea compared to 861 off the Somali coast.

Nigeria and her 190 Soldiers in Mali!!! A Mission of Jokes

Nigeria has decided to send 190 soldiers down to Mali after France has taken the initiative to combat the Islamists. What will be the effect of 190 soldiers in a vast land called Northern Mali?

Nigeria's act is at best laughable. The United Nations has given the West African body, ECOWAS the 'legal military framework' to tackle the insurgency but the body postponed any action all in the name of preparations. This is giving the Islamist rebels more time to get to Bamako.

Colonel Yerima said: “The degenerating crisis in the Republic of Mali compelled the decision of ECOWAS Heads of Government to intervene with a deployment of their military forces.

“Following this decision and in line with Nigeria’s acclaimed peacekeeping roles and in the spirit of African brotherhood, the President and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan, has ordered the immediate deployment of Nigerian troops to Mali.

‘‘The President approved the deployment of a Battallion and in the next 24 hours, a Company of the Battalion [190] will be deployed. The remainder would be deployed later. Already, the Force Commander, Major General S U Abdulkadir, is on ground in Mali.

The United Nations Security Council Resolution 2085 of December 2012 approved the deployment of ECOWAS Security Force to assist Mali in reclaiming the northern part of the country from Islamic militants. Nigeria is still largely unable to address the Boko Haram hazard.

West Africa has proven that Africa will continue to depend on foreign actions to tackle her morass and menace. The colonel even said the EU remains in close touch with all international actors including the AU, ECOWAS and the UN. I wonder what actions the AU and ECOWAS have taken. 

Mali and World Media Opinions

It is a natural phenomenon that opinions will be split on Mali. Many still fail to grapple with the sudden interest of France in the Malian affair. France stayed aloof for a long period of time but suddenly declared interest last week in ousting the Islamist rebels. From Russia to China down to the Middle East not excluding Europe, the Malian question continues to dominate discussions.

Though from Africa, views exist of the neo-colonial designs in most of all these military attacks and supports. Views I share in most cases but on Mali, I think differently. Ecowas slept off when the organisation was utmostly needed. Despite the go-ahead given by the UN, Ecowas was unable to amass troops to counter the fast growing insurgency in Mali.

The organisation said it will be ready by autumn but by then, the Islamists would have overun Bamako with the kind of firepower employed and the level of combat sophistication. The coming of France is a great relief and for the first time, I find myself supporting foreign intervention in Africa. The design of France is yet to be known but no matter what it is, her coming is timely. Read More

UN Security Council, Ecowas and Mali

UN Security Council and Ecowas to meet on Mali

France has called on the Security Council to hold a meeting to discuss the situation in Mali, where Paris intervened on Friday to help fight the Islamist insurgency there. The meeting will take place Monday afternoon, a spokesman for the French UN Mission Brieuc Pont, said in a tweet posted Sunday.

This comes as the French operation in its former African colony enters its third day. On Sunday, French fighter jets bombed strongholds in northern Mali, targeting airports as well as training camps, warehouses and buildings used by the Islamists controlling the area.  The militants are said to have links to al-Qaeda.

Ecowas on Monday made it known that the regional group will meet and discuss Mali. This comes after France, the erstwhile colonial master has taken up the challenge and lead to combat the Ansar Dine Islamists. The United Nations last year September gave Ecowas the green light to tackle the insurgency in Mali but the group decided to act in autumn giving the rebels more time to act and cover more tracks.

France has been heavily bombarding the rebels with heavy firepower but has met stiff and unflagging resistance from the islamists too. The rebels are reported to be in possession of heavy ammunitions with sophisticated trainings and military skills.

Counter-Terrorism: Abuse of Intelligence

ABUSE OF INTELLIGENCE

Redefining Counter-Terrorism Strategy

Nothing, it has been said, is new under the sun but the only thing humans have successfully done is to keep off of the learning game despite the whole projection in education. Terrorism is not new in human history but what continues to be new is the increase brutality of conventional military in response. The world has seen the US embassy bombings in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998 as well as the Bali bombing in 2002 and several other attacks in India with the foremost being the Mumbai twin bombings. Russia has several from Chenchya and in the North Caucusus. That on Israel needs no mention. With all these, the world learns not. What is the marriage between conventional military and terrorism? Clearly limited except to tell the people 'Might is Right.'

If the military is the best panacea for terrorism, Israel today will be the safest place in the world. The US today would have gone to bed with all eyes closed after taking on al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan but instead these countries are becoming increasingly insecure. One does not need a sorcerer or a soothsayer to reveal that conventional military has no strategic and long term cure for terrorism. The only advantage of conventional military is on the tactical side. The tactical side must be backed up by the strategic long-term policies which, based on historical counter-insurgency measures must encompass both intelligence and socio-economic revamp. The most crucial fuel of terrorism is social and economic ostracism. When a people feel they are not really valued, alienated and trampled upon, they result to subversion. Perceived oppression begets terrorism.

In case of the current world terrorist activities, terrorism has largely been associated with religion. It now looks as if Islam is Terrorism. Action and reaction are equal but opposite. Going by global events, it is only a locked heart that will fail to see that Islam has been touched with painful hands by powers of the world. Power lies West, culture lies East. Power and culture are at war. Power has shown the world that might is right, culture wants to prove that all wars are war, either by powerful military force or by selective killings. To win the war on selective killings known as terrorism, intelligence must marry root-causes not conventional military. BUT, the first is for power to check itself. Power needs real and deep introspection. Power must not blatantly oppress culture; either its religion or manner of governance. Ironically, conventional military is the best fuel for terrorism because it makes the terrorists defiant and turns people's hearts to them. It is a case of choosing the known devil than the coming angel.

The strategy of terrorism is a semblance of simultaneous attacks from several directions (SWARM). A good question is: How can conventional military fight these acts in all directions? Almost impossible. They have no uniforms, they are readily among the populace. Some of them are capable of even watching an after-blast, in fact, even sample people's comments. Fighting terrorism means the army or conventional military must create the swarm units to swarm the terrorists. This has cogently been elusive in modern military strategy on counter-terrorism. Terrorism cannot be fought with large mass of troops. Terrorists cannot be defeated with powerful and massive military firepower. Civilian casualties is what this brings. The only thing this can and will do is to alienate the population the more thereby creating more and more fertile grounds for the terrorists. Tactical success no matter how blossoming can be locked by strategic failure. Japan today would have been an indirect enemy of the United States after the American occupation if her economy and leaders are corrupt like Afghanistan and Karzai.. Swarms of attacks would have wearied out the US in Tokyo a long time ago.

The only way to counter terrorism is to combine intelligence and long-term strategy of winning the hearts of the people through the destruction of all insurgents gasoline (reasons for insurgency). The ember of annoyance and ill-feelings must be logically extinguished. Every terrorist cell has reasons for actions, both remote and immediate. Intelligence brings out these causes while strategy gradually eliminates them one after the other. Religion-influenced terrorism is on the highest scale today. Terrorists easily relapse to religious dogmatism to gain converts and spread tentacles. Identification of the rationale for the attack(s) must be the first mission. Rather than wage war on the people or show a strong antagonism of their religious belief and doctrine, a consciously sustained campaign of what the religion really stands for and truly preaches should be sought from well-meaning clerics and must be publicly revealed as well as generally debated. First strategy. This will be the foundation of intelligence gathering.

In state-sponsored terrorism, the first strategy should also be rationale identification. After this, the government of the attacked state must be ready to launch swarms of secret missions on the brains behind the cell(s) within the attacking state circles. A perfect illustration is the death of nuclear scientists in Iran. Be that as it may, government over the years have not learn anything worthwhile owing to the numerous superfluous firepower usually employed. The US failed in Vietnam, USSR failed in Afghanistan. The US is again failing in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia is failing in the North Caucusus and Nigeria is failing in Borno and the Northeastern States. Kenya cannot close her eyes because of al Shabab. ECOWAS could also be preparing to fail in Mali if it employs massive firepower and makes the rebels turn to swarm tactics using cells.

BRIEF LESSON FROM HISTORY

From 1948, Britain was combated with the Malaya Revolutionary Liberation Army (MRLA) insurgents mainly composed of 99% Chinese and few Malays as well as Indians. The insurgents had drawn a map of a three-stage Marxist revolution. The first attack came in June, 1948. Britain wasted no time in reacting. It was swift, ferocious, good co-ordination and excellent perseverance. Major I A Nass says ' Britain remained an outstanding model of success of regular armed forces fighting low-intensity internal insurgency.' Major Daniel S. Challis, writing in the United State of America Command and General Staff College (USCGSC) journal said that 'no better example demonstrates how properly trained forces, committed to a clear strategic objective, can engage seasoned guerrillas on their own turf and win'. British and Malay troops numbered about 60,000 police and later 40,000 Home Guards. To decisively swarm the guerrillas, another private army of Payan Kampong Guards reaching over 20,000 joined the fight.

The approach of Britain was a combination of economic, social, political, psychological and military means. All these were merged into civil action programmes and combat action activities which were resource intensive, requiring long time planning and co-ordination. Real patience. There was no quick-fix approach which Nigeria is employing in the case of Boko Haram. Military operations were brought under police and civilian (political) control at all levels. There was tough curfew enforcement, amnesty was granted to communist insurgents who freely surrendered and there was a nation-wide registration system. All these made the work of the rebels difficult. Registration in particular made it cumbersome for the insurgents to mix freely with the population. Realising the root causes of the insurgency from assessment of the situation, the British embarked on programmes aimed at addressing the fundamental social, economic, psychological and political issues. All these contributed to the demise of the insurgents as they became brutal in response and alienated the people from themselves.

NO LESSON LEARNED

Numerous wars have been fought after that of Britain in Malaya against guerrillas and terrorists with no lessons learned. The most catastrophic are the ongoing ones in Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen not excluding Somalia. Nigeria has double to deal with, Boko Haram in the North and Tuareg rebels of Mali in the Sahel. Nigeria's counter-terrorist measures though not sophisticated tend to mirror and tilt towards that of the US. In fact, US is her role model in all ways but good governance and value of citizens' lives as well as sound economy. Even Sri Lanka was able to decisively ward off the Tamil Sea Tigers rebels when the Sri Lankan Navy shifted to light fleet and swift vessels attacking the Sea Tigers from all angles (given the war back to them the way it was coming). More so, the government was also perfecting its political arsenal as well. It was sharpening its governance polemics to win the people's hearts especially after being accused of human rights violations. The US fought al Shabab in Somalia and the Taliban in Afghanistan without good knowledge of the terrain and with no strategy of winning the hearts of the people. Such blunder she committed too in Iraq. Exactly what Nigeria is committing now in Borno and the Northeastern part and ECOWAS might likely commit in Mali.

The only lesson we have learned from history is that we have not learned anything. Not until when nations learn to study the background rationales for terrorism and come up with broad long-term plans and counter-terrorism strategy based on more police actions and intelligence gathering will terrorism subside. The whole affair now is that with all the mammoth military force being employed and deployed, terrorism is on the rise because the people are terrorised in mostly two fronts (militia-terrorism and military-terrorism). The likely result of this is for the people to accept the 'un-uniformed' ones who are likely to eat and sleep with and around them. They will continue to choose the devil than the deep blue sea unless the sea presents a smiling face and reduce aggression to the barest minimum. Until they realise and know the sea will not swallow and drown them before they can decide to swim in it.